UK Capital Market Shifts Impactful for 2026 Growth

Trading services were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared to December 2025, omitting any seasonal trading. Information are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave. Nearly a 3rd (31%) of trading companies reported that their turnover had reduced in January 2026 compared to the previous month.

Nevertheless, the movements are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The industries with the greatest proportion reporting that turnover decreased in January 2026 were: the lodging and food service activities industry (52%, which is a 21 portion point increase from December 2025) the other services market (45%) the arts, home entertainment and entertainment industry (40%) Approximately 16% of trading organizations reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 portion point boost compared with December 2025.

For trading businesses with 10 or more staff members, 33% reported that their turnover had actually decreased, which was broadly stable compared with December and January 2025. More than one in five (23%) companies reported that their turnover had actually increased, up 2 percentage points compared to December 2025. Generally, the percentage of organizations reporting that their turnover increased correlated to the size of the company.

The exception to this was the proportion for organizations with 250 or more employees, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading businesses were asked how they expect their turnover to alter in the coming month. This can then be used to anticipate how business's turnover will actually change as soon as that calendar month concludes.

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Patterns in between expected turnover and real turnover have broadly moved in the very same instructions, the movements for expectations tend to be larger. For presentational functions, some action alternatives have actually been eliminated. Data are outlined in the middle of the period of each wave. Care should be taken when analyzing expectations concerns, as the workers responding on behalf of companies may not have complete oversight of all of their business's future expectations.

ANSR July UK PRs

More than one in 5 (21%) trading services expect their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 percentage point increase from February 2026 however was broadly steady compared to expectations for March 2025 (22%). The percentage of trading businesses anticipating an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the percentage that reported a real increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, recommending a small pessimism in companies expectations.

However, the trends have broadly followed each other given that the questions were presented in April 2022. The results for March 2026 follow the pattern from previous years, with the percentage of companies expecting turnover to increase peaking after a reduction in January. Bigger organizations were most likely to anticipate a boost in turnover in March, with the percentage varying from 20% for services with 0 to 9 staff members, to 42% for organizations with 100 to 249 staff members.

For presentational purposes, some action options have been gotten rid of. Data are plotted in the middle of the period of each wave.

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The percentage of trading organizations that anticipated a decline in January 2026 was 25%, while the percentage that reported a real reduction in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The percentage of services anticipating turnover to decrease for a specific month ahead of time has remained substantially lower than the proportion of companies reporting an actual decrease in that month because April 2022.

However, expectations for turnover to reduce have regularly followed the same trend, as actual reported turnover reduces throughout this time. Trading organizations were asked what obstacles, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading companies reported that financial uncertainty was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly stable with early January 2026.

This is broadly stable compared to early January 2026 and 2 percentage points down compared to a year earlier. For trading services with 10 or more employees, cost of labour was the most regularly reported obstacle, at 36%. This was broadly stable compared to early January 2026. Companies with 10 to 49 workers were most likely to report expense of labour as an obstacle than organizations with 250 or more employees (37%, compared with 20%). One in five (20%) trading organizations with 10 or more employees showed that they were not currently experiencing any turnover challenges in early February 2026. Additional information on monetary performance, including all action choices categorised by market and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.